{"178981":{"#nid":"178981","#data":{"type":"event","title":"Ed Kaplan, Yale University","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ESpeaker\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EEdward H. Kaplan\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EWilliam N and Marie A Professor of Management Sciences,\u003Cbr \/\u003EYale School of Management;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EProfessor of Public Health,\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003EYale School of Public Health;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EProfessor of Engineering,\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003EYale School of Engineering and Applied Science\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAbstract\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis article presents the first model developed specifically for understanding the infiltration and interdiction of ongoing terror plots by undercover intelligence agents, and does so via novel application of ideas from queueing theory and Markov population processes. The resulting \u0022terror queue\u0022 models predict the number of undetected terror threats in an area from agent activity\/utilization data, and also estimate the rate with which such threats can be interdicted. The models treat terror plots as customers and intelligence agents as servers. Agents spend all of their time either detecting and infiltrating new terror plots (in which case they are \u0022available\u0022), or interdicting already detected terror plots (in which case they are \u0022busy\u0022). Initially we examine a Markov model assuming that intelligence agents, while unable to detect all plots, never err by falsely detecting fake plots. While this model can be solved numerically, a simpler Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion approximation yields some results in closed form while providing nearly identical numerical performance. The transient behavior of the terror queue model is discussed briefly along with a sample sensitivity analysis to study how model predictions\u0026nbsp;compare to simulated results when using estimated versus known terror plot arrival rates. The diffusion model is then extended to allow for the false detection of fake plots. Such false detection is a real feature of counterterror intelligence given that intelligence agents or informants can make mistakes, as well as the proclivity of terrorists to deliberately broadcast false information. The false detection model is illustrated using suicide bombing data from Israel.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EBio\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EProfessor Kaplan\u0027s research has been reported on the front pages of the\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1991\/08\/01\/nyregion\/yale-study-reports-clean-needle-project-helps-check-aids.html?scp=1\u0026amp;sq=Kaplan%20%22needle%20exchange%22\u0026amp;st=cse\u0022\u003ENew York Times\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;and the\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/pqasb.pqarchiver.com\/jpost\/access\/140225441.html?dids=140225441:140225441\u0026amp;FMT=ABS\u0026amp;FMTS=ABS:FT\u0026amp;date=Jul+22%2C+2002\u0026amp;author=JUDY+SIEGEL\u0026amp;pub=Jerusalem+Post\u0026amp;edition=\u0026amp;startpage=04\u0026amp;desc=Israel+should+get+smallpox+vaccine+now+-+expert\u0022\u003EJerusalem Post\u003C\/a\u003E, editorialized in the\u0026nbsp;Wall Street Journal\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.ph.ucla.edu\/epi\/Bioter\/smallpoxscenarios.html\u0022\u003E(article)\u003C\/a\u003E, recognized by the New York Times Magazine\u0027s Year in Ideas, and discussed between the covers of Time\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.time.com\/time\/magazine\/article\/0,9171,975586,00.html\u0022\u003E(article)\u003C\/a\u003E, Newsweek\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/id\/100414\/page\/1\u0022\u003E(see article)\u003C\/a\u003E, US News and World Report, Consumer Reports and the New Yorker, and in person on NBC\u0027s Today Show, the Cronkite Report, and National Public Radio\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.npr.org\/programs\/atc\/transcripts\/2002\/nov\/021101.northam.html\u0022\u003E(transcript)\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe author of more than 100 research articles, Professor Kaplan received both the\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.informs.org\/Recognize-Excellence\/INFORMS-Prizes-Awards\/Frederick-W.-Lanchester-Prize\u0022\u003ELanchester Prize\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;and the\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.informs.org\/Recognize-Excellence\/Franz-Edelman-Award\u0022\u003EEdelman Award\u003C\/a\u003E, the two top honors in the operations research field. An elected member of both the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine of the US National Academies, he has also twice received the prestigious\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/ldft.huji.ac.il\/\u0022\u003ELady Davis Visiting Professorship\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he has investigated AIDS policy issues facing the State of Israel.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EKaplan\u0027s current research focuses on the application of operations research to problems in counterterrorism and\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehomeland security.\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EThis article presents the first model developed specifically for understanding the infiltration and interdiction of ongoing terror plots by undercover intelligence agents, and does so via novel application of ideas from queueing theory and Markov population processes. The resulting \u0022terror queue\u0022 models predict the number of undetected terror threats in an area from agent activity\/utilization data, and also estimate the rate with which such threats can be interdicted. The models treat terror plots as customers and intelligence agents as servers. Agents spend all of their time either detecting and infiltrating new terror plots (in which case they are \u0022available\u0022), or interdicting already detected terror plots (in which case they are \u0022busy\u0022). Initially we examine a Markov model assuming that intelligence agents, while unable to detect all plots, never err by falsely detecting fake plots. While this model can be solved numerically, a simpler Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion approximation yields some results in closed form while providing nearly identical numerical performance. The transient behavior of the terror queue model is discussed briefly along with a sample sensitivity analysis to study how model predictions\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003Ecompare to simulated results when using estimated versus known terror plot arrival rates. The diffusion model is then extended to allow for the false detection of fake plots. Such false detection is a real feature of counterterror intelligence given that intelligence agents or informants can make mistakes, as well as the proclivity of terrorists to deliberately broadcast false information. The false detection model is illustrated using suicide bombing data from Israel.\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Joint IE\/OR Colloquium Terror Queues"}],"uid":"27215","created_gmt":"2012-12-20 15:52:42","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 02:01:40","author":"Mike Alberghini","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","field_event_time":{"event_time_start":"2010-03-03T10:00:00-05:00","event_time_end":"2010-03-03T11:00:00-05:00","event_time_end_last":"2010-03-03T11:00:00-05:00","gmt_time_start":"2010-03-03 15:00:00","gmt_time_end":"2010-03-03 16:00:00","gmt_time_end_last":"2010-03-03 16:00:00","rrule":null,"timezone":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"groups":[{"id":"1242","name":"School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (ISYE)"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[{"id":"1795","name":"Seminar\/Lecture\/Colloquium"}],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan\u003ETon Dieker, ISyE\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.gatech.edu\/contact\/?id=e5416\u0022\u003EContact Ton Dieker\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E404-385-3140\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}