{"181511":{"#nid":"181511","#data":{"type":"news","title":"Improving Flood Predictions in Developing Nations","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EWhen deadly floodwaters devastated Pakistan in early September, Georgia Institute of Technology Professor Peter Webster and Research Associate Kristofer Shrestha weren\u2019t surprised. They had forecasted the disaster ten days in advance using a new hydrological model developed on campus. Webster has now sent that model to the World Bank, along with recommendations for saving Pakistani lives and infrastructure during future flooding disasters. His comments on how to assist developing and emerging countries prior to natural disasters are also included in the \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v493\/n7430\/full\/493017a.html\u0022\u003Ecurrent edition of Nature\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cem\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis is the third consecutive summer that Pakistan has endured catastrophic floods. Thirty million people were affected in 2010 and 2011. This summer\u2019s floods affected 4.7 million more, killed nearly 500 people and led to the evacuation of 350,000. World emergency leaders have warned that Pakistan, which Webster says has been stubborn to accept external assistance, is not able to predict and prepare for natural disasters on its own. The country\u2019s local weather warnings, with limited access to extended forecasts, are typically issued only a few days in advance and local populations have little time to act.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThat\u2019s why Webster and colleagues took a closer look at forecasting the chances of a 2012 disaster. His system is based on a hydrological stream-flow model, terrain and global precipitation forecasts. The model accurately predicted stream flow in the Indus River and its tributaries, which form Pakistan\u2019s delta.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cThe success of our model suggests a number of recommendations for the future, such as a Pakistani hazard prediction center and the creation of an extended operational flood system for the country,\u201d said Webster, a professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. \u201cHopefully by working with the World Bank and the Pakistani government, we can form a long-term collaboration to reduce the catastrophe of future disasters.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAnother recommendation is using the system to create models of simulated floods during Georgia Tech-led workshops for Pakistani weather officials. Webster says it is imperative that a flood event forecasting system be integrated with disaster management and risk communication plans, especially with the recent increase in the number of floods affecting the country. As a result, Webster will travel to Islamabad next month to discuss some of the ideas at a workshop.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis isn\u2019t the first time Webster has offered the system to a developing country. Following the 1998 floods in Bangladesh, Webster and his collaborators at \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.cfanclimate.com\/\u0022\u003EClimate Forecast Applications Network\u003C\/a\u003E (CFAN) created a partnership with the Bangladeshi government and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to develop an extended range flood forecasting system. The system has been in place since 2004.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ECFAN was established in 2006 under Georgia Tech\u2019s Enterprise Innovation Institute VentureLab Program. The company uses the Institute\u2019s weather and climate research to improve probabilistic predictions.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u201cIntegration of this new system can help determine the appropriate types and levels of responses for governments and communities,\u201d said Webster. \u201cThis forecast system forms a solid base for an effective disaster risk reduction system.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EGeorgia Tech researchers have created a hydrological model that forecasts flooding in Pakistan as many as ten days in advance.\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Georgia Tech researchers have created a hydrological model that forecasts flooding in Pakistan as many as ten days in advance."}],"uid":"27560","created_gmt":"2013-01-08 14:29:45","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 03:13:26","author":"Jason Maderer","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","dateline":{"date":"2013-01-08T00:00:00-05:00","iso_date":"2013-01-08T00:00:00-05:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"181541":{"id":"181541","type":"image","title":"Peter Webster","body":null,"created":"1449179053","gmt_created":"2015-12-03 21:44:13","changed":"1475894828","gmt_changed":"2016-10-08 02:47:08","alt":"Peter Webster","file":{"fid":"196048","name":"0725001-p2-010.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/0725001-p2-010_0.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/www.tlwarc.hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/0725001-p2-010_0.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":989301,"path_740":"http:\/\/www.tlwarc.hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/images\/0725001-p2-010_0.jpg?itok=8hJIGu42"}}},"media_ids":["181541"],"related_links":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.cfanclimate.com\/","title":"CFAN"},{"url":"http:\/\/webster.eas.gatech.edu\/","title":"Peter Webster"},{"url":"http:\/\/www.cos.gatech.edu\/","title":"College of Sciences"},{"url":"http:\/\/www.eas.gatech.edu\/","title":"School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences"}],"groups":[{"id":"1183","name":"Home"}],"categories":[{"id":"154","name":"Environment"},{"id":"135","name":"Research"}],"keywords":[{"id":"4896","name":"College of Sciences"},{"id":"51591","name":"flooding"},{"id":"11834","name":"Peter Webster"}],"core_research_areas":[{"id":"39531","name":"Energy and Sustainable Infrastructure"},{"id":"39501","name":"People and Technology"},{"id":"39541","name":"Systems"}],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EJason Maderer\u003Cbr \/\u003EMedia Relations\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:maderer@gatech.edu\u0022\u003Emaderer@gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E404-385-2966\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":["maderer@gatech.edu"],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}