Title: An Analysis of Monthly Mean Temperature Trends in the United States

Abstract: To study monthly mean temperature trends for the continental United States, we develop a periodic linear regression model with multiple changepoints, which allows for a mean shift at each changepoint time and simultaneously estimates both trend and changepoint effects. The error component in the model is allowed to be a periodically correlated time series. The model is applied to over 900 temperature recording stations across the U.S., and a spatially smoothed map of temperature trends is presented. Overall, the results suggest more warming than is estimated in previous studies.

http://www2.isye.gatech.edu/statistics/index.php