CBSmoneywatch.com - March 15, 2010
Those probability models are where the really mathy folks have made their mark on this process. These guys rate teams according to scoreboard data: wins and losses, home court advantage, opponents' strength, and in some cases, margin of victory. Two of the most popular, which Poologic incorporates, are Jeff Sagarin's and Joel Sokol's. Sagarin, an M.I.T. grad, has been publishing ratings in various sports in USA Today since 1985, and you can see his college basketball picks here. Sokol, a Georgia Tech professor, makes his calculations based on a different formula, LRMC, which stands for logistic regression and Markov Chain. Sokol says he's analyzed data from 10 years of NCAA tournaments and "it's statistically significant that our system predicts more winners." Play around with that function, marvel at the brainpower behind them, and choose what you like. Read more>>>