In his talk, Stulberg exmaines U.S./E.U. energy sanctions on Russia. These sanctions are intended to punish the Kremlin for mobilizing in Crimea, not fully implementing the Minsk II accords and for its intrusion in foreign elections. But the strategy is muddled, Moscow's policies persist, and basic tenets of coercive diplomacy are not met.  Notwithstanding these problems, sanctions persist, collateral costs are mounting, and mutual perceptions and behavior across the sanctions divide vary-- raising the risks of costly and inadvertent escalation.  

To extrciate from this predicament, all parties must accept that sanctions will not be lifted soon and work together to de-escalate future tension. They also need to realize that the regional gas landscaping is changing with the deepening of Europe-Eurasian gas networks.Stulberg argues that when all parties recognize the disconnect between related patterns of behavior, as well as the character and resilience of these emerging networks, it will make it easier to align commercial with strategic incentives.  This, in turn, can convert natural gas relations from a domain of confrontation to potential on-ramp for mutual reassurance needed to reground constructive relations. The talk leverages alternative data analytical methods and network analyses to illuminate these points.

Adam Stulberg is the Neal Family Chair Professor, associate chair for Research and co-director of the Center for International Strategy, Technology, and Policy (CISTP) in the Nunn School. He teaches courses on energy and international security; international security; Russia/Eurasian politics and security; and international security policy. His research interests include energy, weapons and security, emerging technology and security, and national security.