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President Donald Trump and U.S. officials have described the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as a devastating blow to the group and part of its total defeat. But the history of terrorism shows that the demise of extremist groups is rarely that simple.
Counterterrorism is not a chess game that ends when you topple the king. When the leaders of terror groups are captured or killed, it can have a range of effects depending on what extremists believe, how much support they have and how they’re organized. Sometimes terror groups collapse after their leader is gone. But others are resilient and may even increase their attacks.
The Sam Nunn School of International Affairs is a unit of the Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts.
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