Ganz, who also works as an economist for the American Enterprise Institute, shared his interpretation of COVID-19 data that states could be using when determining whether to reopen businesses and recreational activities.
]]>Scott Ganz, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, concluded New York is the only state meeting the criteria among eight states he analyzed using data from April 23 to May 6. He used a framework allowing for small swells in the number of confirmed daily cases as long as the overall 14-day trend was downward.
Under this framework, which he feels is a reasonable way of interpreting the CDC guidance, a state wouldn’t qualify as having a sustained decline in cases if it saw any dramatic spikes over the 14-day stretch. That would mean California, Florida, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Texas didn’t exhibit sufficient progress during that time period, he said.
“We don’t want to see at any point in time during those 14 days a spike,” he told me. “That’s going to indicate to me that we’re not seeing sustained decline for 14 days. You maybe want to restart the clock.”