{"64936":{"#nid":"64936","#data":{"type":"news","title":"Georgia Tech Computer System Predicts NCAA Basketball Tournament Picks","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EYou don\u2019t need a\ncrystal ball to win your NCAA basketball March Madness bracket pool this year.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EJust check out the predictions\nby LRMC (Logistic Regression Markov Chain), the computer ranking system\ndesigned by three professors at the Georgia Institute of Technology.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EIt predicts this year\u2019s NCAA\nFinal Four matchups will most likely be Ohio State vs. Duke and Kansas vs.\nBrigham Young University (BYU), with Ohio State beating Kansas for the\nchampionship.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EThe southeast region has the\nbiggest likelihood of first-round upsets by double-digit seeds, with Michigan\nState, Gonzaga, Utah State and Belmont looking like all good candidates.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cSince one of BYU\u2019s best\nplayers left the team, the southeast region is really wide open,\u201d said Joel\nSokol, operations research professor in the Stewart School of Industrial and\nSystems Engineering at Georgia Tech.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ESince the 2000 season, LRMC\nhas correctly predicted the outcomes of more NCAA tournament games than\ncompeting ranking systems and major polls.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ELast year, LRMC correctly\npredicted the winners of 51 out of 64 NCAA games \u2013 beating out more than 50 of\nthe top ranking sites. In 2008, the system predicted not only the Final Four,\nfinal two and the eventual victor, but also several upsets in earlier rounds.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EDeveloped by Georgia Tech\nProfessors Joel Sokol, Paul Kvam and George Nemhauser, with assistance from\nMark Brown, math professor at City College of New York, LRMC utilizes data such\nas home court advantage, scores, teams competing and margin of victory in past\nperformances to calculate likely victors.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EBut it also uses statistical\nmethods to determine potential underdogs, which Kvam calls the \u201csix degrees of\nKevin Bacon approach.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cThe system bounces from\nteam to team looking at their results, trying to hone in on who is really No.\n1,\u201d Sokol said. \u201cThe team that it keeps coming back to most often is our No. 1,\nand so on.\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EWith 68 teams vying for college\nbasketball\u0027s biggest prize, more teams than ever before, the tournament can\nalways be affected by upset, injuries or last-second, buzzer-beating baskets.\nThat\u2019s the human factor where LRMC predictions can falter.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003EBut the system has proven\nmore reliable with its predictions than the NCAA\u2019s own Ratings Percentage Index\n(RPI). Historically, the\u0026nbsp;upgraded LRMC method has picked the winner of\nmore than 74 percent of tournament\u0026nbsp;games correctly, while the RPI has been\nright less than 70 percent of the time.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003ESokol recommends starting\nwith LRMC predictions and making tweaks based on your own personal knowledge or\npreference.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\n\u003Cp\u003E\u201cIt\u2019s like Watson,\u201d Sokol\nsaid of the IBM Supercomputer that appeared on \u201cJeopardy!\u201d last month. \u201cOverall\nLRMC is likely to be better than others, but every once in a while it says\nsomething that you look at and say, \u2018How could that be?\u2019\u201d\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003ELRMC predicts this year\u2019s NCAA Final Four matchups will most likely be Ohio State vs. Duke and Kansas vs. Brigham Young University,\u0026nbsp;with Ohio State beating Kansas\nfor the championship.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Check out the predictions by LRMC (Logistic Regression Markov Chain), a computer ranking system designed by three Georgia Tech professors."}],"uid":"27462","created_gmt":"2011-03-14 10:14:48","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 03:08:22","author":"Liz Klipp","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","dateline":{"date":"2011-03-14T00:00:00-04:00","iso_date":"2011-03-14T00:00:00-04:00","tz":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"hg_media":{"55507":{"id":"55507","type":"image","title":"Joel Sokol, ISyE associate professor","body":null,"created":"1449175533","gmt_created":"2015-12-03 20:45:33","changed":"1475894491","gmt_changed":"2016-10-08 02:41:31","alt":"Joel Sokol, ISyE associate professor","file":{"fid":"190304","name":"Sokol_Joel_-_Bust.jpg","image_path":"\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/Sokol_Joel_-_Bust_0.jpg","image_full_path":"http:\/\/www.tlwarc.hg.gatech.edu\/\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/Sokol_Joel_-_Bust_0.jpg","mime":"image\/jpeg","size":2017737,"path_740":"http:\/\/www.tlwarc.hg.gatech.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/740xx_scale\/public\/images\/Sokol_Joel_-_Bust_0.jpg?itok=_NHtZSzU"}}},"media_ids":["55507"],"related_links":[{"url":"http:\/\/www2.isye.gatech.edu\/~jsokol\/profspicks\/profspicks11.htm","title":"LRMC bracket"},{"url":"http:\/\/www.lrmc.gatech.edu\/","title":"Background on LRMC system"}],"groups":[{"id":"1183","name":"Home"}],"categories":[{"id":"129","name":"Institute and Campus"}],"keywords":[{"id":"594","name":"college of engineering"},{"id":"1202","name":"H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering"},{"id":"1200","name":"joel sokol"},{"id":"1201","name":"paul kvam"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EGeorgia Tech Media Relations\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELaura Diamond\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:laura.diamond@comm.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Elaura.diamond@comm.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E404-894-6016\u003Cbr \/\u003EJason Maderer\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:maderer@gatech.edu\u0022\u003Emaderer@gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E404-660-2926\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":["klipp@gatech.edu"],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}