{"69144":{"#nid":"69144","#data":{"type":"event","title":"A Portfolio Approach to HIV Control in South Africa","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003ETITLE: \u003Cstrong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EA Portfolio Approach to HIV Control in South Africa\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003ESPEAKER:\u0026nbsp; Elisa Long\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EABSTRACT:\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERecent\n HIV studies have stimulated interest in implementing portfolios of \npartially effective programs.\u0026nbsp; Using a dynamic HIV epidemic model, we \nevaluate population-level health benefits and costs of alternative \nportfolios, given uncertainty in each program\u2019s effectiveness at \nreducing transmission.\u0026nbsp; We determine the optimal allocation of resources\n to each intervention, given a budget constraint.\u0026nbsp; Using a Monte Carlo \nsimulation, we perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the \neffectiveness of each intervention, based on the sampling distribution \nobtained in each clinical trial.\u0026nbsp; We find that a comprehensive portfolio\n of expanded screening, antiretroviral treatment, male circumcision, \ntenofovir microbicide gel, and preventive vaccination could avert 2.3 \nmillion HIV cases in South Africa over 10 years, a 66% reduction in \nincidence.\u0026nbsp; This strategy doubles treatment initiation, decreases adult \nHIV prevalence from 18% to \u0026lt;10%, and adds 32 million quality-adjusted\n life years (QALYs), at a cost of $29 billion over 10 years (or \napproximately $100 per person per year).\u0026nbsp; The incremental \ncost-effectiveness is \u0026lt;$2,000 per QALY gained, assuming reasonable \nmicrobicide and vaccine costs.\u0026nbsp; A portfolio of modestly effective \nprevention programs could substantially reduce HIV incidence in South \nAfrica, and is an economically efficient use of limited resources.\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":"","field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"A Portfolio Approach to HIV Control in South Africa"}],"uid":"27187","created_gmt":"2011-08-03 07:57:36","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 01:55:18","author":"Anita Race","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","field_event_time":{"event_time_start":"2011-10-06T12:00:00-04:00","event_time_end":"2011-10-06T14:00:00-04:00","event_time_end_last":"2011-10-06T14:00:00-04:00","gmt_time_start":"2011-10-06 16:00:00","gmt_time_end":"2011-10-06 18:00:00","gmt_time_end_last":"2011-10-06 18:00:00","rrule":null,"timezone":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"groups":[{"id":"1242","name":"School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (ISYE)"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[{"id":"1795","name":"Seminar\/Lecture\/Colloquium"}],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}