{"71324":{"#nid":"71324","#data":{"type":"event","title":"Statistics Seminar- Risk Assessments of Volcanic Hazards","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003ETITLE: Statistics Seminar- Risk Assessments of Volcanic Hazards\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESPEAKER: Susie Bayarri\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EABSTRACT:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ERisk assessment of rare natural hazards -- such as large volcanic\npyroclastic flows -- is addressed. Assessment is approached\nthrough a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling,\nand extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of\nthe natural hazard is utilized to provide the needed\nextrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical\n\u003Cbr \/\u003Emodeling of the available data is needed to determine the\ninitializing distribution for exercise of the computer model. In\ndealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the\n\u003Cbr \/\u003Ecomputer model are prohibitively expensive. Solution instead\nrequires a combination of adaptive design of computer model\napproximations (emulators) and rare event simulation. The\n\u003Cbr \/\u003Etechniques that are developed for risk assessment are illustrated\non a test-bed example involving volcanic flow.\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EBio:\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0026nbsp; M.J. Bayarri is Full Professor of Statistics\u0026nbsp; at the\u0026nbsp; University\nof Valencia , and Adjunt Professor of Statistics at DSS, Duke\nUniversity. She is Fellow of the American Statistical\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EAssociation, Ordinary Member of the International Statistical\nInstitute and Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.\nShe was President of the the International Society for Bayesian\nAnalysis (ISBA).and President of the Spanish Region of the\nInternational Biometric Society.\u0026nbsp; She has been in the Organizing\nand Scientific Committees of numerous meetings and workshops,\nwith special mention to the Valencia Meetings, the Objective\nBayesian meetings, and the Workshops on Bayesian Inference and\nStochastic Processes. She was the Overall Leader of the 2006-2007\nSAMSI Program on Development, Assessment and Utilization of\nComplex Computer Models. She got the 2006 Wilkinson Award, and\nthe 2008 Jack Youden Prize. Her main research areas of interest\nat the moment are Objective Bayes methods, Model selection, Model\nchecking,\u0026nbsp; and Uncertainty quantification for computer\u0026nbsp; models.\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":"","field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Statistics Seminar- Risk Assessments of Volcanic Hazards"}],"uid":"27187","created_gmt":"2011-10-17 10:45:42","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 01:54:00","author":"Anita Race","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","field_event_time":{"event_time_start":"2011-11-03T15:00:00-04:00","event_time_end":"2011-11-03T16:00:00-04:00","event_time_end_last":"2011-11-03T16:00:00-04:00","gmt_time_start":"2011-11-03 19:00:00","gmt_time_end":"2011-11-03 20:00:00","gmt_time_end_last":"2011-11-03 20:00:00","rrule":null,"timezone":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"groups":[{"id":"1242","name":"School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (ISYE)"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[{"id":"166896","name":"seminar"}],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[{"id":"1795","name":"Seminar\/Lecture\/Colloquium"}],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003ERoshan Vengazhiyil\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}