{"78181":{"#nid":"78181","#data":{"type":"event","title":"IE Seminar: Games and Risk Analysis: Four cases involving Management and National Security","body":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003ETITLE: Games and Risk Analysis: Four cases involving Management and\n    National Security\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ESPEAKER: Dr Elisabeth\n    Pate-Cornell\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EABSTRACT:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EA presentation of four models of risk and decision analyses\n    involving games, designed to support strategic decisions. The first\n    is a single-move game, in which the US faces risks of terrorist\n    attacks by several possible groups. The result is a probabilistic\n    ranking of the threat posed by different types of weapons.\u0026nbsp; The\n    second is a dynamic counter-terrorism analysis designed to compare\n    the stabilizing effects of different short- and long-term government\n    strategies. It is based on the simulation of an alternate game\n    between a government and a terrorist group. The third is a dynamic\n    evaluation of US nuclear counter-proliferation strategies for a\n    single country. It involves an analysis of the weapon development\n    program given the country\u0027s evolving intent and capabilities, and\n    the effectiveness of different US strategies to prevent or delay its\n    success.\u0026nbsp; The fourth is a principal-agent model of the development\n    of an engineered system, in which an agent in charge of part of the\n    project may consider meeting a deadline by cutting corners if he\n    falls behind schedule. This generally increases the system failure\n    probability and the goal is to support the decisions of the manager\n    in setting constraints and incentives to decrease the total costs.\n    These four cases are based on systems analysis and probability but\n    present a spectrum of models, assumptions and results.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n    Biography:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n    Dr. M. Elisabeth Pat\u00e9-Cornell was born in Dakar, Senegal, in 1948.\n    Her undergraduate degree is in mathematics and physics (BS,\n    Marseilles, France, 1968), and her first graduate degrees are in\n    applied mathematics and computer science (MS and Engineer Degree,\n    Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble, France, 1970; 1971).\u0026nbsp; She\n    received a Masters degree in Operations Research (OR) in 1972 and a\n    Ph.D. in Engineering-Economic Systems (EES) in 1978, both from\n    Stanford University.\u0026nbsp; She joined the Stanford faculty in 1981, and serves as Chair (since\n    1997) of the now Department of Management Science and Engineering.\u0026nbsp;\n    In 1999, she was named the Burt and Deedee McMurtry Professor in the\n    School of Engineering, and she is also a Senior Fellow (by courtesy)\n    of the Stanford Institute for International Studies.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n    Dr. Pat\u00e9-Cornell was elected to the National Academy of Engineering\n    in 1995, and is currently a member of its Council. She has served on\n    the President\u2019s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board from December\n    2001 to December 2004.\u0026nbsp; Dr. Pat\u00e9-Cornell is a world leader in\n    research related to engineering risk analysis, risk management,\n    decision analysis under uncertainty, and more generally, the use of\n    Bayesian probability to process incomplete information. In recent\n    years, her research and that of her Engineering Risk Research Group\n    at Stanford have focused on the inclusion of both technical and\n    organizational factors in probabilistic risk analysis models. These\n    models have been applied to a wide variety of topics, ranging from\n    the risk management of the NASA shuttle tiles to that of offshore\n    oil platforms and medical systems such as anesthesia during surgery.\n    She is currently working on risk management processes for complex\n    projects and programs, with application to space, industrial and\n    medical systems. Since 2001, she has applied risk analytic methods\n    to the study of different types of terrorist attacks on the United\n    States, the assessment of intelligence information and the\n    effectiveness of counter measures.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n    Dr. Pat\u00e9-Cornell is the author or co-author of more than a hundred\n    papers in refereed journals and conference proceedings. She has\n    received several best-paper awards from professional organizations\n    such as the American Nuclear Society and the Decision Analysis\n    Society of INFORMS (for her work on the shuttle tiles), and\n    peer-reviewed journals such as Military Operations Research in 2002\n    for a paper on the assessment of terrorist threats.\u003C\/p\u003E","summary":null,"format":"limited_html"}],"field_subtitle":"","field_summary":"","field_summary_sentence":[{"value":"Games and Risk Analysis: Four cases involving Management and National Security"}],"uid":"27187","created_gmt":"2012-01-13 13:46:07","changed_gmt":"2016-10-08 01:57:02","author":"Anita Race","boilerplate_text":"","field_publication":"","field_article_url":"","field_event_time":{"event_time_start":"2012-01-19T10:00:00-05:00","event_time_end":"2012-01-19T11:00:00-05:00","event_time_end_last":"2012-01-19T11:00:00-05:00","gmt_time_start":"2012-01-19 15:00:00","gmt_time_end":"2012-01-19 16:00:00","gmt_time_end_last":"2012-01-19 16:00:00","rrule":null,"timezone":"America\/New_York"},"extras":[],"groups":[{"id":"1242","name":"School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (ISYE)"}],"categories":[],"keywords":[],"core_research_areas":[],"news_room_topics":[],"event_categories":[{"id":"1795","name":"Seminar\/Lecture\/Colloquium"}],"invited_audience":[],"affiliations":[],"classification":[],"areas_of_expertise":[],"news_and_recent_appearances":[],"phone":[],"contact":[{"value":"\u003Cp\u003EDr. Alan Erera\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022mailto:alerera@isye.gatech.edu\u0022\u003Ealerera@isye.gatech.edu\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E","format":"limited_html"}],"email":[],"slides":[],"orientation":[],"userdata":""}}}